I believe this line is inflated because of the QB situation at Northern Illinois as freshman Tommy Fiedler the 3rd string gets the start. The QB situation for Northern Illinois has never been an issue and Fiedler's running capabilities are a bit better than Graham and Hare's so this actually may work in their favor. Either way Northern Illinois will run the ball 60% +, and will do it with tempo. They rank top 25 in pace, and are 6-1 when they run for more than 200 yards this season.
Bowling Green will have their hands full on defense, and this should be a very competitive game. They have allowed an average 38.6 points per game vs. top 50 paced teams over 5 total games. Bowling Green has yet to figure out a way to stop the run in this match up over the years as Bowling Green has rushed for over 200 yards in every match up since 2008, and have averaged over 5 yards per carry the last 3.
Northern Illinois also plays very good defense, and has faced 3 top 40 passing offenses. Northern Illinois ranks 24th in opposing QB rating, 25th in yards per pass attempt, and 25th overall in yards per play, all MAC bests. What's interesting is this team has held those top 40 passing offenses 10 points below their season average. Northern Illinois also very very good in the red zone allowing 38.46 % TD percentage, and their pass defense also 13th in opponent interception % on passes thrown. Matt Johnson has been one of the best all year no doubt, but he has 3 interceptions in his last 3 games. This is a team that lost at home to Toledo because of turnovers and Northern Illinois went on the road and beat them. We get some line value here based on the result the Huskies had against Ohio last week. The MAC West a tougher conference and has gone 11-8 vs. the East this year. I'll predict a Bowling Green win, but it will be by 7 points or less.
